1961—2012年安徽省24节气气候变化及冬小麦和一季稻物候期的响应

Climate changes in 24 solar terms and responses of winter wheat and single-season rice phenophases in Anhui Province of East China in 1961-2012

全球变暖作为一个不争的事实,不可避免地对农业产生影响。利用安徽省逐日气象观测资料以及作物物候期资料,运用统计学方法分析24节气气候变化及冬小麦和一季稻物候期的响应。结果表明:安徽省24节气平均气温呈准正态分布,一年中大暑最热(28.5±0.9℃)而大寒最冷(2.5±1.4℃),各节气升温趋势明显,整个节气循环趋于整体抬升;谷雨-处暑节气降水集中,夏至降水最多(151.4 mm)而冬至最少(13.5 mm),24节气降水年际变化大,线性增减趋势总体不明显;近52年农业气候资源发生显著变化,冬小麦和一季稻全生育期≥10℃的活动积温增多,尤其是冬小麦生育期热量明显改善,降水量冬小麦全生育期无明显变化,而一季稻全生育期有增加趋势(17.5 mm·10 a-1),日照时数均显著减少;在24节气气候变化响应方面,沿淮淮北冬小麦物候期普遍提前,全生育期缩短,江淮一季稻播种-返青阶段呈提前趋势,而分蘖-成熟阶段有推后趋势,全生育期变长;活动积温及平均气温是引起物候期变化最主要的因子,气温日较差很大程度决定着生殖生长期的长短,降水与物候期呈正相关,降水减少、气温升高,加速了生育进程,日照总体有利于营养生长期缩短而生殖生长期延长。

Global climate warming is an indisputable fact, which inevitably affects the agricultur- al activities. Based on the climatic data from 1961 to 2012 and the crop phenophase data from 1980 to 2012 in Anhui Province, and by using statistical methods, the responses of winter wheat and single-season rice phenophases to the climate changes in 24 solar terms in the Province were analyzed. The average air temperature in the 24 solar terms were in quasi-normal distribution, being the highest （28.5±0.9 ℃ ） in Great Heat （the 12th solar term） and the lowest （2.5±1.4℃ ） in Great Cold （the 24th solar term）. There was an obvious raising trend in the air tempera- ture in each solar term, and overall, the solar term cycle tended to be uplift. The precipitation centralized greatly during Grain Rain （ the 6th solar term ） to Limit of Heat （ the 14th solar term）, and was the most （151.4 mm） in Summer Solstice （the 10th solar term） and the least （ 13.5nm） in Winter Solstice （the 22nd solar term）. Since the 1960s, the precipitation in the 24 solar terms had a greater variation between years, but no obvious linear trends. In the past 52 years, the agro-climatic resources in the. Province had obvious change. The active accumulated temperature of ≥ 10℃ during winter wheat and single-season rice growth periods showed an in- creasing trend, especially the heat conditions in winter wheat growth period improved. The pre- cipitation in single-season rice growth period had an increasing trend （ 17.5 mm ·10 a-1 ） , while that in the whole growth period of winter wheat had no clear trend. The sunshine hours in the growth periods of both winter wheat and single-season rice reduced significantly. In response to the climate change in the 24 solar terms, the phenophases from sowing to maturing stages of win- ter wheat advanced, and the duration of the whole growth period reduced, whereas the phe- nophases from sowing to reviving and from tillering to maturing stages of single-season rice ad- vanced and prolonged, respectively, with the duration of the whole growth period increased. The active accumulated temperature and the average air temperature were the most important factors inducing the changes of phenophases in the growth period, and the diurnal air temperature deter- mined the duration of reproductive growth period. The correlation analysis indicated that there was a significant positive correlation between precipitation and crop phenophase. The decrease of precipitation and the increase of air temperature accelerated crop development processes, while the sunshine was overall favorable to the shortening of vegetative growth period and the prolonging of reproductive growth period.