中国绿色储蓄率核算:1978-2010

The Accounting of China’s Green Savings Rate: 1978 - 2010

本文借鉴世界银行提出的真实储蓄率概念和核算方法,在考虑自然灾害、人力资本、绿色投资以及在净进口外部自然资本的情况下,提出绿色储蓄率概念和核算方法,以更全面衡量绿色国民财富,作为建立新的经济社会发展评价体系的基础和参照。本文计算1978-2010年期间中国绿色储蓄率的变迁情况,发现它的历史轨迹是呈现早期下降,其后不断上升的"J"字型路线,反映了这一时期生态赤字从扩大到缩小,绿色储蓄率不断上升的基本趋势。

This paper proposes the concept and accounting methodology for green savings rate with reference to those presented by the World Bank as well as full considerations of the impacts of natural disasters,human capital,green investment and net import of external nature capital in open-up environment.This paper aims to fully evaluate the Green National Wealth[T1]and to lay the foundation for new evaluation system of economic and social development.This paper calculates the change of China’s Green Savings Rate from1978 to 2010.And the paper discovers that the curve of Green Saving Rate,which appears as a＂J＂shaped route,is descending during early years but then keeps ascending later.It reveals the trend of China’s ecological balance,which is initially an expanding deficit but now a growing surplus,thus further demonstrates that China’s Greening Saving Rate is continuously increasing.