我国能源—经济—环境(3E)系统协调度的地理空间分布与动态演进

The Geographic Distribution Characters and Dynamic Evolution for the Coordination Degree of Energy-Economic-Environmental (3E) in China

在对2004—2010年我国30个省域3E系统协调度进行科学测算的基础上,利用空间计量方法分析了我国3E系统协调度的地理空间分布特征,并进一步采用非参数核密度分布对各空间集聚区3E系统协调度的动态演进趋势进行了估计与分析。结果表明:①我国3E系统协调水平总体上不容乐观,有26个省域3E系统协调水平处于不同程度的失调状态。②我国3E系统协调水平的地区分布具有显著的空间依赖性,形成了3E系统协调水平高值和低值两大空间集聚区,并且集聚区保持高度的空间稳定性。③我国3E系统协调水平整体上趋于下降,高值和低值两大空间聚集区以及中值片区3E系统协调水平呈现不同的动态演进趋势。我国依然面临能源消费、经济增长与环境保护协调可持续发展的巨大压力。

This paper scientific calculations the coordination degree of 3E system in China＇s 30 provinces from 2004-2010, then analysis of the regional differences and geographic distribution characters of 3E coordination degree with the space measurement method, and estimated the dynamic evolution of the 3E coordination degree in space gathering areas best on the kernel density method.The results show that： （1） The coordination level of 3E is not optimistic, there are 26 provinces at different levels of maladjustment.（2） There is space dependence of the geographical distribution of 3E coordination dgree,and formed the high coordination level and low coordination level gathering areas, and the gathering area maintain a high degree of spatial stability. （3）The 3E coordination level tends to go down on the whole, the high coordination level and low coordination level gathering areas presents the different dynamic evolution trend. Our country is still facing tremendous pressure on the coordinated and sustainable development for Energy consumption, economic growth and environmental protection.