吉林省交通运输能源消费碳排放测算与驱动因子分析

Calculation and Driving Factors Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Traffic and Transportation Energy Consumption in Jilin Province

基于吉林省1999—2011年交通运输能源消费量,运用碳排放量估算模型,测算了吉林省1999—2011年的交通运输能源消费碳排放量,对碳排放量的动态变化与库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)进行分析,结果表明:吉林省交通运输能源消费碳排放量由1999年的99.3750×104t增加到2011年的331.8255×104t,变化过程分为三个阶段:平稳增长阶段、加速增长阶段、减速增长阶段,大量柴油能源的耗用是碳排放量增长的主要原因;碳排放量的库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)大致呈现"倒U"形状,2011年达到转折点,之后碳排放量随经济的增长将减小;基于STIRPAT模型,揭示了人口总数、人均GDP、单位GDP能耗、交通运输投资额、城市化率、私家车数量等驱动因子的弹性系数分别为0.2344、0.2202、-0.2247、0.1657、0.2864、0.2163。吉林省必须实施切实有效的措施,改变现有的交通运输发展模式,改变能源利用结构,加大科技创新力度,早日实现交通运输能源消费碳排放量的负增长。

Based on the traffic and transportation energy consumption, the carbon emissions of traffic and transportation energy consumption are obtained by using the estimation model of carbon emissions from 1999 to 2011 in Jilin Province, and the dynamic changes and the Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） of carbon emissions are analyzed. The result indicates that the carbon emission of traffic and transportation energy consumption increased continuously from 99.3750× 104 t to 331.8255 × 104 t between 1999 and 2011 in Jilin Province, the change process is divided into three stages which include the stage of the stationary growth phase, accelerated growth stage and slow growth stage, the large consumption of diesel energy is the main reason of the rapid growth in carbon emissions. The EKC of carbon emission shows the ＂inverted U＂ shape roughly and the ~rning point appeared in 2011, after 2011, carbon emissions will decrease along with the economic growth. Based on the STIRPAT model, the study reveals that elasticity coefficients of driving factors such as population, per capita GDP, the unit GDP energy consumption, the investment of traffic and transportation, city rate, the number of private cars are 0.2344, 0.2202,-0.2247, 0.1657, 0.2864 and 0.2163, respectively. Jilin province must implement effective measures to change the existing development mode of traffic and transportation, change the energy structure, and increase the innovation of scientific and technological, to strive for the realization of negative growth in carbon emissions of traffic and transportation energy consumption.