山东省人口城镇化动态特征及其影响因素

Dynamic Features and Its Affecting Factors of Urbanization in Shandong Province

利用"五普"、"六普"数据,采用分形和ESDA方法,揭示了山东省2000年以来人口城镇化进程中的新动向及空间特征,并根据时序数据和截面数据,剖析了全省城镇化影响因素,结果表明:山东省中小城镇取得较快发展,中等规模城市发育较好,济南—青岛的双中心特征突出;城镇化空间格局相对稳定,整体呈现集聚发展的趋势,城镇体系沿胶济线展开特征依然突出,三大高水平集聚区对周边城镇化辐射作用明显,西部城市城镇化进程加快,区域差距进一步缩小;经济、工业化、外资、科技进步、交通等是影响城镇化发展的重要因素。研究认为,山东省城镇化发展应重视大城市培育、加快小城镇发展、区域协调以及个性化发展等对策建议。

Based on the Fifth National Census in 2000 and Sixth National Census in 2010, the new features and development tendency of population urbanization in Shandong province are revealed with fractal and ESDA methods. The affecting factors urbanization in Shandong province is explored with the time series data and cross-sectional data. The results show that small-cities and medium-sized cities get quick development. The development level of medium-sized cities is higher. The double center urban development characteristic of Jinan-Qingdao is still outstanding. The urbanization spatial pattern which shows a trend of agglomeration development are relatively stable since 2000. The urban system is widely distributed along Jiaoji Railroad. The radiation effect of high level agglomeration area on surrounding area urbanization is obvious. With the fast urbanization of western cities in Shandong province, regional development gap is narrowing. The urbanization affecting factors includes economy, industrialization, foreign investment, science and technology progress, the traffic et al. According to drive force and limitation, cities are analysed in classification. Urbanization development countermeasures and suggestions which include cultivating big city, accelerating the development of small towns, regional coordination and individualized development, are finally put forward.