基于层次分析法的中国镍资源安全评价

Nickel resources safety evaluation in China based on analytic hierarchy process

本文界定了镍资源安全的内涵,按照短期市场安全和长期战略安全,建立了2套安全评价指标体系,采用层次分析法（AHP）确定各指标权重,分别从两个方面,定量评价了2002~2012年我国镍资源安全状况。评价结果显示,过去10年我国镍资源安全整体呈下降趋势。结合评价结果,本文剖析了影响我国镍资源安全的因素,并提出了加大国内镍资源找矿力度,加大镍资源海外矿业投资步伐,增加镍矿进口来源,积极参与期货交易等提高我国镍资源安全的对策和建议。

This article defines the connotation of nickel resource security,and sets up two sets of safety evaluation index system in accordance with short-term market security and long-term strategic security.Then the author uses the analytic hierarchy process（AHP）to determine the weight for each index,and makes a quantitative evaluation of China,s nickel resource security situation from the year 2002to 2012from two aspects respectively.Evaluation results show that over the past 10years,China,s nickel resource security is overall downward.Combined with these evaluation results,the author analyzes the factors affecting China,s nickel resource security,and proposes several countermeasures and suggestions to enhance China,s nickel resource security,such as strengthening domestic nickel resource prospecting,increasing the pace of nickel resource investment overseas,increasing import sources of nickel ore,participating in futures trading actively etc.