基于改进后灰靶模型的中国自然灾害风险评价

The Assessment of Natural Disaster Risk in China Based on Improved Grey Target Model

针对自然灾害风险系统的复杂性和大量不确定性特征,从自然灾害危险性、承灾体易损性、区域设防的角度建立评价指标体系,采用灰靶评价模型对中国31个省、直辖市、自治区自然灾害风险状况进行评价.针对传统灰靶模型采用等权的计算公式,本文引入熵权对模型加以改进,建立起基于熵权的改进后灰靶模型.评价结果表明,该方法思路清晰、计算简洁,评价结果可行且有效,并能清晰展示风险等级评价体系内部要素层间的相互关系,具有推广应用价值.

Based on the characteristics of complexity and uncertainty of natural disaster risk system,an evaluation indexes system was built from the risk of natural disasters,socio-economic vulnerability,and regional fortification.Then grey target model was used to assess the risk of disasters among 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China.According to equal weight of traditional grey target theory,an improved grey target model was built.The results show that the method is simple for concept and calculation,and could clearly demonstrate the relationships of the various elements with high valne in practice.