泵站工程风险评估辅助系统开发及应用

Development and application of a risk assessment system for pumping stations

针对泵站工程风险分析的需要,采用层次分析法(AHP)和事故树分析法(FTA),以Visual Basic程序设计语言开发了泵站工程风险评估辅助系统。系统由泵站运行风险事故树分析模型、底事件风险度计算、泵站各组成部分的权重计算以及计算结果输出4个模块组成,可直观、方便、快捷地计算泵站运行风险概率及判定风险等级。将系统应用于大套第一抽水站的风险评估,得出大套第一抽水站运行风险概率为74.921%,风险等级为Ⅰ级,与实际计算结果一致,表明该系统具有可应用性。

To satisfy the needs of risk analysis for pumping stations,a risk assessment system for pumping stations was developed based on Visual Basic programming language by adopting the methods of analytic hierarchy process（AHP） and the fault tree analysis（FTA）.The system consists of four modules,the FTA model of running risk,the risk degree analysis of basic events,the weighting calculation for each part of the pumping station,and the output of the calculated results.The intuitive,convenient and efficient calculation of pumping station running risk probability as well as determination of the risk level can be realized by this system.The system was applied to the risk assessment of the Datao First Pumping Station.The results suggest that the operating risk probability of the pumping station is 74.921%,and its risk degree is I-level.The results agree with the computed results which indicate that the system has good applicability.