摘要
舟山市是我国唯一以群岛设置的地级市,是受海平面上升影响最直接的地区.采用3种数学统计分析方法来模拟和预测舟山市沿海海平面的上升速率和未来的上升值,然后通过情景设定未来的海平面上升值遇上百年一遇潮位,基于GIS技术分析了其最大可能的淹没范围.
Zhoushan, the only prefecture-level city which sets up on group of islands in China, is the most severe area affected by sea level rise directly. This paper simulated and forecasted the rate and future value of sea-level rise in Zhoushan coastal areas with the analysis of three kinds of athematical statistical methods, and analyzed the submerged areas of maximum possibility based on GIS technology through the scenario of future sea level rise meeting the hundred years tide.
出处
《杭州师范大学学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
2013年第4期373-378,共6页
Journal of Hangzhou Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
海平面上升
预测
随机动态
淹没分析
sea-level rise
prediction
stochastic dynamic
submerging analysis