固定式压力容器风险模糊层次综合评价研究

Research on Fuzzy Hierarchy Comprehensive Assessment of Stationary Pressure Vessel Risk

针对目前国内缺乏压力容器失效数据库的特点,提出采用模糊综合评价的方法对压力容器失效可能性进行计算,从而进行压力容器的风险评价。从腐蚀、设计、制造、安装、运行、维护与检修6个方面分析导致压力容器失效的风险因素,并采用层次分析法确定各风险因素权重,计算压力容器失效可能性,对压力容器失效顶事件的综合评价向量进行了点值化处理。根据Muhlbauer评价方法,确定了压力容器泄漏影响系数,进而计算压力容器的风险值。借鉴API 581—2000《Riskbased Inspection Technology》风险等级划分原则,考虑现场实际情况,提出了固定式压力容器风险等级的划分区间。以某输气站场固定式压力容器为例,采用上述风险评价方法确定其风险等级,验证了该方法的适用性。

Due to the absence of domestic pressure vessel failure database, the calculation of pressure vessel failure possibility is proposed based on the method of fuzzy comprehensive assess- ment. From the view of corrosion, design, manufacture, installation, operation, and mainte- nance g〉. inspection firstly, risk factors of pressure vessel failure are analyzed. The weights of risk factors are calculated based on the method of analytic hierarchy process,and failure possibili- ty of pressure vessel is also calculated. The comprehensive assessment vector of top event of pressure vessel failure is converted into a spot. The leak influence factor of pressure vessel is also obtained compliance to the method of Muhlbauer, then the risk value of pressure vessel is calcu- lated. Risk ranks are segregated according to the principle of API 581--2000 Risk-based Inspec- tion Technology, simultaneously, considering the realities of pressure vessel. The segregation in- tervals of risk ranks about pressure vessel is proposed. For the last part, stationary pressure ves- sel at gas transmission station is taken for example, according to the method of risk assessment introduced, the risk rank of which is relative low. The result is consistent with the determination of experts, so, the practical of this method is validated.