国际原油价差中的政治因素

Political Factors in the International Oil Benchmark Spread

国际石油价格一直是影响各国经济发展的重要因素,同时石油定价作为一种经济问题也会威胁各国能源安全,从而转化成为政治问题。作为世界上两种最重要的基准油,西得克萨斯州轻质原油(WTI)和布伦特原油(Brent)是国际石油定价中的核心要素,两者价格从历史上来看基本趋平,但从2010年至今,这两种原油价格倒挂价差峰值大,持续时间长,从本质上改变了WTI和Brent相互参照联动的关系。从历史上WTI和Brent四次价差拉大案例的发展变化,可以看出政治因素能够影响并左右国际石油定价的经济问题。从中国角度来看,WTI和Brent倒挂对中国来说是一把双刃剑,一方面,美国由于获得低油价优势制造成本下调,中国制造占相对优势的行业相对处于劣势;另一方面,美国WTI对油价的低估,将导致其他石油生产国更倾向于同中国合作,并且WTI影响力的下降给中国参与国际石油定价系统提供了更大的空间。

International oil pricing has always been a key factor in national economy and even in national energy security,and it can be transformed into a political issue.According to the world’s two most important oil benchmarks,WTI and Brent,the price difference from a historical point of view has been basically flattening.The phenomenon that the WTI and Brent crude oil prices spread peak lasted for a long time since 2010,shows a fundamental change in the relationship between WTI and Brent.Given the four spreads of WTI and Brent,based on historical and layer-by-layer analysis,the author argues that political factors can influence international oil pricing.From the Chinese perspective,the spread is a double-edged sword.On the one hand,the United States takes the advantage of low oil prices to lower manufacturing cost while China’s manufacturing industries are in relative disadvantage;On the other hand,the US underestimation of oil prices will make other oil-producing countries more willing to cooperate with China,and the falling influence of WTI provides a larger space for China in the international oil pricing system.