西亚北非地区动荡与中国能源安全探析

China's Energy Security and the Upheaval in West Asia and North Africa

自2010年底以来,西亚北非地区持续上演着一场史无前例的剧变,多股势力之间的明争暗斗使得这一地区充满了极大的不确定性。作为世界上最为重要的石油生产地和供应地之一,西亚北非地缘政治动荡必然会对国际能源格局带来十分广泛而深远的影响。中国对西亚北非地区石油资源的高度依赖,使得中国能源安全不免面临着一系列严峻挑战:局势动荡使得西亚北非地区油气合作的政治环境进一步复杂化,中国石油企业海外投资风险骤增;在中国石油进口对西亚北非地区的对外依存度与来源地集中度"双高"的情形下,中国能源安全的脆弱性凸显;中国对石油运输渠道的控制力薄弱,中国的能源安全有可能陷入"马六甲困局"。鉴于当前国际能源角逐日益白热化,着眼于应对西亚北非地区的复杂形势,中国应当密切结合现存的具体问题抓紧进行顶层设计,从多方面着手全面构建中国的能源安全战略:尽快建立西亚北非地区油气投资预警机制;稳步推进石油进口路径多元化举措;积极拓展为能源安全保驾护航的军事手段。

The West Asia and North Africa(WANA) region has experienced an unprecedented upheaval since late 2010.Fierce rivalry among different forces makes this area face great uncertainty.As one of the world's most important oil producers and suppliers,the geo-political turmoil in WANA region will inevitably bring deep and far-reaching impacts on international energy structure.An overwhelming dependence on the oil resources in WANA region results in the harsh fact that China's energy security has to undergo serious challenges: regional instability further complicates the political environment for oil and gas cooperation in WANA region,and sharply increases the risks of China's overseas oil investment;given China's high dependence on WANA region for oil imports and the concentration of oil origins in this region,the vulnerability of China's energy security is constantly superimposed;the weak control of oil transporting lines will possibly make China fall into another 'Malacca Dilemma'.Therefore,to respond the unrest in WANA region,China shall pay close attention to the existing problems and draft up top-level design,taking advantage of multiple measures to formulate its energy security strategy by speeding up the building of oil and gas investment warning mechanism in WANA Region,steadily enhancing the diversity of importing channels for oil,and actively expanding military tactics to protect energy security.