2008-2012年陕西省传染病自动预警系统运行效果评价

Performance of automatic early warning system of communicable diseases in Shaanxi,2008-2012

目的分析2008-2012年陕西省传染病自动预警信息的运行状况,为进一步完善传染病自动预警信息系统的预警效果提供依据。方法采用描述性流行病学研究方法对2008-2012年陕西省传染病自动预警系统生成的预警信号、预警病种、响应时间、核实方式等进行分析。结果 2008-2012年陕西省自动预警系统共发出预警信号51245条,预警阳性率为0.05%。各地市均有预警信息,预警信号数与法定传染病发病总数存在正相关关系,r=0.973(P<0.01)。预警信号季节分布呈现夏季和冬季双峰型。涉及的病种有30种,其中预警信息较多的病种有其他感染性腹泻病、流行性腮腺炎、手足口病、痢疾、麻疹,共计41 905条,占总数的81.77%。2008-2012年预警信号总响应率分别为86.11%、84.44%、83.17%、99.97%和99.97%,呈逐年上升趋势,核实方式以监测数据分析为主,占57.39%,平均响应时间为0.84～2.27 h。结论传染病自动预警系统运行稳定,对及时发现重点病例和早期发现暴发疫情起到重要作用。但在实际应用中存在一些局限性,预警阈值有待进一步优化。

Objective To evaluate the performance of the automatic early warning system of communicable diseases in Shaanxi province during 2008 - 2012 and provide scientific evidence for the improvement of the system. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on the results generated by the automatic early warning system during this period. Results Totally 51245 warning signals of disease outbreaks in Shaanxi were generated, involving 30 kinds of communicable diseases, the positive rate of early warning was 0. 05 %. A positive correlation between the number of signals and the case numbers of notifiable communicable diseases was observed in all areas in Shaanxi. The generation of signals had obvious seasonality, the peaks were during at summer and winter. The major diseases involved included other infectious diarrhea diseases, mumps, hand foot and mouth disease, dysentery and measles, accounting for 81.77% of total signals （41 905/51 245）. The annual response rate was 86. 11%, 84. 44%, 83.17%, 99.97% and 99. 97% respectively. The verifying of the signals was mainly through surveillance data analysis, accounting for 57.39%. The response time ranged from 0. 84 hours to 2. 27 hours. Conclusion The performance of the communicable disease automatic early warning system was stable, which played an important role in the early detection of the index case and disease outbreaks. However, further improvement should be made on the early warning system, including choosing more appropriate early warning thresholds.