基于空间场和引力模型的边界效应分析——以中国东盟自由贸易区为例

Empirical Study of the Boundary Effect Basing on the Space Field and Gravity Model:A Case of CAFTA

21世纪初以来,中国积极实施自由贸易区战略取得了重要的成效。如何测量中国与贸易伙伴之间贸易自由化实现程度,已成为在自贸区谈判和评估中一个值得重视和研究的重要课题。从经济空间场理论出发,重新定义和分析经济边界效应,并根据系统差异和效果的不同,区分为中介效应和屏蔽效应;以中国—东盟自由贸易区为例,基于引力模型构建边界效应测定模型,并对边界效应进行测定。研究表明:中国与东盟间存在显著的中介效应和屏蔽效应,且来自东盟侧的屏蔽效应远大于中国侧的屏蔽效应。

Since the beginning of the 21st century, China actively implements the strategy of FTA and achieves important results. How to measure the degree of trade liberalization between China and its trading partners becomes a worthy and important research topic in the negotiation and evaluation of FTA. Depending on economic space field theory, boundary effect is redefined and analyzed; it is divided into intermediate effect and shielding effect with systematic differences and deferent effect. Basing on gravity model, a test model of the boundary effect is constructed to measures the boundary effect between China and ASEAN. The results show that the intermediate effect and shielding effect between China and ASEAN are significant, the shielding effect beside ASEAN is much larger than that beside China.