能源消费结构统计特征研究

Research on the Statistical Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure in China

采用移动平均、HP滤波、VAR模型等方法对中国能源消费结构的循环及趋势特征进行研究,结果表明:化石能源消费对新能源消费影响通过GDP波动而发生作用,强化能源利用效率,维持GDP的稳定增长有助于中国能源消费结构优化,克服循环因素波动的影响。从强化提升新能源消费水平的角度看,煤炭/石油消费量的上升会拉动新能源/天然气消费量的增加,而新能源消费量上升会抑制煤炭/石油消费量的上升。因此,在中国能源消费结构上,新能源与煤炭/石油之间存在一种制衡机制,这也印证了中国产业政策取向和能源消费结构优化政策的合理性。基于此,针对性的提出了相关能源消费结构优化对策。

The characteristics in the cycle and the trend aspects of China＇s energy consumption structure are researched with the methods of moving average, HP filter, and VAR model. The impact on the consumption of new energy resulting from that of fossil energy is formed by the GDP fluctuation. And the means of promoting the energy efficiency and maintaining the growth stabilization of GDP are helpful to overcome the impact of cyclical factors and optimize energy consumption structure. The increment in the consumption of coal （or oil） may help promote that of new energy （or natural gas） in view of promoting the level of the new energy consumption, which provides theoretical support for the orientation of China＇s industrial policy and the optimization of energy consumption structure. Conversely, the increment in the consumption of new energy may help decrease that of coal （or oil）, and the inhibitory effect of the consumption of natural gas is not obvious. At the end, the optimization countermeasures of energy consumption structure based on the analysis of the cycle and the trend aspects are given.