3种水文模型在淮河息县流域洪水模拟中的比较

Comparison of three hydrological models in flood simulation for Xixian Basin of Huaihe River

选用新安江模型、TOPMODEL模型和SWAT模型这3种具有代表性的水文模型,对淮河息县流域洪水过程进行模拟,并对它们的模型结构、汇流方法和模拟结果进行比较。结果表明:新安江模型和TOPMODEL模型模拟结果略好于SWAT模型,说明结构复杂、考虑全面的分布式模型在洪水模拟中结果不一定最优;SWAT模型的最大优点不在于洪水模拟,而在于其考虑因素全面,适合做各种条件下的水文变化研究;这3种模型各有优缺点,下一步可以考虑如何采用集合预报的方法取长补短,提高模拟精度。

Three representative hydrological models, the Xin＇ anjiang, TOPMODEL, and SWAT models, were used to simulate the flood processes in the Xixian Basin of the Huaihe River. The structures, confluence methods, and simulated results of the three models were compared. The results show that the simulated results of the Xin＇ anjiang model and TOPMODEL were slightly better than those of the SWAT model, indicating that distributed hydrological models with complex structures and full considerations do not always have optimal results in flood simulation. The greatest advantage of the SWAT model is not that it can perform flood simulation, but that it takes various factors into full consideration and it is applicable to hydrological change research under various conditions. The three models have their relative merits, and, thus, we can consider in further study how to make the best of the both sides through ensemble prediction to enhance the simulated precisions.