经济周期、政府控制与公司资本结构动态调整速度

Economic Cycle,Government Control and the Adjustment Speed of Corporate Capital Structure

资本结构调整速度是动态资本结构研究的核心问题,本文结合我国特殊的制度背景,运用我国后两轮经济周期的宏观经济和微观数据,同时采用两阶段部分调整模型和整体部分调整模型,实证检验经济周期和政府控制因素对公司资本结构调整速度的影响,并探讨这种影响是否存在交互作用。结果表明:经济周期和公司资本结构的调整速度正相关,政府控制和资本结构调整速度负相关(不显著)。进一步的检验表明:经济周期因素(CPI除外)对资本结构调整速度的影响方向并不会因为政府控制因素而发生改变,但非国有公司、中央政府控制公司经济周期因素对资本结构调整速度的影响程度分别相对于国有公司、地方政府控制公司更为明显。

The adjustment speed is the core of the dynamic adjustment of capital structure.This paper empirically studies the impact of economic cycle and government control on the dynamic adjustment speed of capital structure and discusses the interactive influence of these two factors using the macro and micro data of the last two economic cycles in China.Empirical results illuminate that economic cycle and capital structure adjustment speed are positively related,while government control and capital structure adjustment speed are negatively correlated(not significant).The further test shows that the impact of economic cycle(except CPI)on the adjustment speed of corporate capital structure does not vary with government control;however,non-state-owned corporates and corporates controlled by the central government are more sensitive to economic cycle factors than state-owned corporates and corporates controlled by local governments.