行业投资增长过快现象会因过剩产能的存在趋缓吗?——基于1999～2010年我国产能过剩行业数据的分析

Does the Phenomenon of the Rapid Growth of Industry Investment Slowdown due to the Existence of Excessive Production Capacity? Based on the Analysis of China’s Industry with Excessive Production Capacity Data from 1999 to 2010

本文利用动态面板数据模型考察了我国制造业产能过剩行业的过剩产能对行业固定资产投资的影响,并从自筹资金和国内贷款两个角度深入探析了过剩产能对投资增长的影响。研究结果表明,过剩产能的存在并没有对行业整体投资和自筹资金投资的增长起到抑制作用;而过剩产能对国内贷款投资则起到了显著抑制作用。

This paper examines the impact of exsisting excess production capacity of China＇ s manufacturing industries with ex- cess production capacity on the industry investment in fixed assets through the Dynamic Panel Data Model, and analyzes the impact of excess production capacity on the investment growth from the perspectiwe of self-financing and domestic loans. The result shows that the existence of excess production capacity do not play an inhibitory effect on the growth of the industry in- vestment as a whole and the self-financing investment. The excess production capacity played an obviously inhibitory effect on the domestic loan investment.