县级政府债务:规模、风险与化解——基于某省三县市的调查分析

The County Government Debt: Scale, Risk and Defusing——Based on the Investigation and Analysis of the Three Counties

为了解当前县级财政收支基本情况、运行特点和发展趋势,分析县级财政运行存在的问题及影响因素,防范因县级财力不足可能引发的金融风险隐患,本文选取了某省三个县市作为样本地区进行调查。调查显示:目前县级政府债务风险基本处于一个整体可控的范围内,但是长期潜在风险不可忽视,这主要体现在融资平台新增债务较多、财政收支缺口较大、财政收入未来增长存在不确定性等方面。一旦依靠土地和税收的地方政府财政收入出现大幅度下滑,将直接减弱地方政府的偿付能力,从而对金融体系的稳健经营产生负面影响。

In order to understand the current situation of county budget, operating characteristics and the development trend, analyze the existing problems and influencing factors of county fiscal, prevent possible financial risks caused by insufficient financial resources, this paper selects three counties as sample survey of the region. The survey shows： the county government debt risk is in the range of a whole controllable, but the long- term potential risks can not be ignored, which mainly embodies many new debt, fiscal revenue and expenditure gap, fiscal revenue growth into the future uncertain aspects in the financing platform. Once land and tax revenue of local governments declined substantially, will directly reduce the solvency of local governments, which are robust against the financial system camp negatively impact.