边境贸易便利化水平对中国新疆维吾尔自治区边境贸易流量的影响--基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

Influence of Frontier Trade Facilitation on Frontier Trade Flow:An Empirical Trade Gravity Analysis of Xinjiang Province in China

本文在测算中国新疆维吾尔自治区与周边国家边境贸易便利化水平的基础上,利用贸易引力模型实证分析了边境贸易便利化水平对中国新疆维吾尔自治区边境贸易流量的影响,测算了中国新疆维吾尔自治区各边贸伙伴的贸易潜力。研究结果表明:中国新疆维吾尔自治区边境贸易便利化水平相对最高,吉尔吉斯斯坦和蒙古的边境贸易便利化水平相对最低;边贸伙伴国的人均GDP、人口数量、边境贸易便利化水平及边贸伙伴加入上合组织等因素对中国新疆维吾尔自治区边境贸易流量有正向的推动作用,中国新疆维吾尔自治区与边贸国家的空间距离、边贸伙伴国的GDP等因素对边境贸易流量具有明显的阻碍作用;中国新疆维吾尔自治区与俄罗斯、蒙古和塔吉克斯坦的边境贸易属于潜力巨大型,与哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦和巴基斯坦的边境贸易属于潜力再造型。

On the basis of evaluating the frontier trade facilitation levels of Xinjiang, China and its trading partners along the frontier, this paper applies the trade Gravity Model to analyze the influence of frontier trade facilitation on frontier trade flow of Xinjiang as well as its trade potential with its frontier trading partners. The research results show that： the frontier trade facilitation level of Xinjiang is the highest among those of its trading partners, among which Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia are have the lowest levels; factors such as GDP per person, population, the level of frontier trade facilitation level and trading partners being SCO members are of great influence on the frontier trade flow in spite of geographic obstacles; the frontier trade Xinjiang has with countries like Russia, Mongolia and Tajikistan are already possessed of huge potentials, but Xinjiang＇ s trade potentials with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan need to be created and expanded. Keywords：