外商直接投资、出口贸易与二氧化碳排放--基于东亚发展中经济体与发达经济体的比较研究

FDI,Export and Carbon Dioxide Emissions:A Comparative Study with East Asian Developing and Developed Economies

本文将东亚经济体按照1980-2011年间的人均GDP平均水平划分为发展中经济体与发达经济体,并分别对两组的面板数据进行了实证分析,验证库兹涅茨曲线关系的存在性。面板数据回归结果表明,无论是发展中经济体还是发达经济体,外商直接投资都具有CO2减排效应,但比较而言,外商直接投资在发达经济体的减排作用远大于发展中经济体;出口贸易的增加都会促进发展中经济体与发达经济体的CO2排放,但在发展中经济体贸易的碳增加强度高于发达经济体;研究还发现,发展中经济体不存在CO2排放与经济增长的倒U型关系,而库兹涅茨假说在发达经济体中成立。最后讨论了产生差异的原因,并提出了相应的建议。

According to average annual GDP per capita, this paper categoriz- es the East Asian economies in 1980-2011 into developing economies and developed economies, and conducts an empirical analysis on two sets of panel data to verify the validity of Kuznets curve relationship. The panel data regression re- suits show that both the developing and developed economies enjoy emission reduction effect with FID, but the effect is stronger for the developed economies than for the developing economies. Also found is that export trade can promote emissions in both economy categories, but the increased carbon intensity in the developing economies is higher than that in the developed economies. The study also finds there is not an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in developing economies, while this Kuznets hypothesis is valid in the developed economies. This paper concludes by discussing the causes of the difference and accordingly proposes suggestions.