人口年龄结构变化影响经常项目的研究进展

Effect of Change in Population Age Structure on Current Account: A Review of Studies

人口年龄结构变化影响经常项目差额的研究,是在不同年龄结构人群异质性经济行为假设下,以生命周期假说与抚养负担假说为基础,以两缺口理论为传导机制,建立扩展的两缺口模型和跨期替代模型来展开。文章从人口年龄结构影响储蓄率差异和劳动力供求变化两方面分析了人口结构与经常项目的内在联系,概括了该领域实证研究进展,制约因素及不同结论,同时指出其理论基础、研究假设、动态性及变量处理过程等方面需要拓展的研究领域。

In the light of the hypothesis of heterogeneity economic behavior of different age structures and based on Life Cycle Hypothesis and Dependency Hypothesis, a number of studies have been conducted to explore the effects of change in Population Age Structure （PAS） on the current account. With the two-gap theory used to describe the conduction mechanism, those studies are con-ducted by linking the PAS with the current account with an extended Two-gap model and an Overlapping-generations model. Explaining the relationship between PAS and the current account balance from differences in saving rates （demand as-pect） and the shift of labor supply and demand （supply aspect）, this paper also summarizes empirical studies in this field correspondingly with an eye on their constraint factors and varied conclusions. To facilitate further studies, this paper concludes by points out areas in this field of study that need to be extended or elaborated on which include the theoretical basis, research hypothesis, dynamic and variable processes.