管理层盈余预测与权益资本成本

Management Earnings Forecasts and Equity Capital Cost

信息披露与资本成本的关系是理论界和实务界关注的热点问题之一,但目前仍存在较大争议。以2001—2009年A股数据为研究数据,从管理层盈余预测的视角,通过考察管理层盈余预测、信息风险与权益资本成本之间的交互影响,可对盈余预测与权益资本成本之间的关系作有益的探索。研究表明,(1)前期的权益资本成本越高,管理层后期发布盈余预测的概率越大;(2)管理层盈余预测可以降低权益资本成本,但这种降低的效果呈现明显的"滞后效应";(3)盈余预测和权益资本成本之间的关系受信息风险的影响,在信息风险高的企业,盈余预测对于权益资本成本的降低作用更加明显。

The relationship between information disclosure and cost of capital has already become a hotly debated issue in theory and practice. Based on China ＇ s A - share companies ＇ data from 2001 to 2009 and by adopting the perspective of management earnings forecasts, this paper investigates the interactive influence between earnings forecasts, the cost of equity capital and information risk thereby shedding light on the relations between the former two. The results indicate that 1 ） the higher the cost of capital, the higher probability of management earnings forecasts ; 2 ） issuing the management earnings forecasts could reduce the cost of capital in the future rather than in the disclosure year; 3 ） the relation between management earnings forecasts and cost of equity capital is affected by information risk, and the reduction effect is more pronounced in companies of higher information risk.