欧亚大陆腹地极端与恐怖主义组织发展态势及对中国的威胁

The Development of Extremist and Terrorist Organizations in the Hinterland of Euraisa and the Threats to China

中东剧变使萨拉菲极端主义思想在与中国山水相连的中亚国家、阿富汗和巴基斯坦进一步扩散;同时,美国和北约将在2014年撤出阿富汗,中亚国家进入了政权过渡期。上述形势使中国主要面临四个方面的威胁:其一,极端、恐怖组织的人员和武器通过中哈、中吉、中塔、中阿、中巴边界进入中国新疆,使在那里的"三股势力"进一步加强。其二,上述组织通过光盘和网络等媒介宣传宗教极端主义和"圣战"思想。其三,极端、恐怖组织对中国在中亚国家和阿富汗/巴基斯坦的人员和设施进行暴力攻击和破坏。其四,境内外极端、恐怖组织互相勾结,联手在中国特别是新疆地区采取暴力、恐怖行动。中国的政策应对可从以下五个方面入手:加强国际合作,遏制极端主义和恐怖主义的冲击;加强自身的反恐机制建设,特别是全民教育机制的建设;想方设法分化瓦解"三股势力";严防萨拉菲派的极端活动,又要将其与萨拉菲宗教信仰严格区分;建设性介入国际文明论坛,构建自己的文明问题话语权。

The Middle East upheaval has facilitated the further spread of Salafist extremist ideology in Central Asian countries,Afghanistan,and Pakistan which share common borders with China.The withdrawal of US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2014 shall mark the beginning of a transition period in Central Asian countries.This creates four major threats to China: first,extremist and terrorist personnel and weapons may make their way into China's Xinjiang Autonomous Region through the Chinese borders with Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Afghanistan,and Pakistan,reinforcing the three evil forces(terrorist,separatist,and extremist) in that region;second,the above-mentioned organizations may spread religious extremism and jihadist ideologies through video disks and the Internet;third,extremist and terrorist groups may attack Chinese nationals working in the Central Asian countries,Afghanistan,Pakistan and sabotage relevant infrastructure;fouth,extremist and terrorist groups in and out of China may jointly plot violent actions in China and particularly in Xinjiang.China's anti-terrorism policies should focus on the following five aspects: enhancing international cooperation to minimize the shocks generated by extremism and terrorism;strengthening anti-terrorist mechanism,especially mass-education mechanism;working toward the elimination of the three evil forces;preventing Salafist extremist activities while distinguishing them from legitimate Salafist religious services;constructively involving in the international civilization forum to earn a greater say on civilization issues.