基于VAR模型的区域金融风险传染效应与实证分析——以金融危机前后数据为例

The Empirical Analysis on the Contagion Effect of the Regional Financial Risks Based on the Var model——Illustrated by the Data Before and After International Financial Crisis

利用资本市场银行日收益率指标为金融风险的代理变量,以国际金融危机为背景,运用Granger因果关系和脉冲响应函数实证检验了金融风险在中国国内各区域传染效应的存在性。研究结果表明,与国家间存在传染效应一样,金融风险在中国国内各区域间也同样存在显著的传染效应。但Granger因果关系检验和脉冲响应分析也同时表明,各区域间金融风险传染并非在任何时候都存在双向影响机制,在风险较为集中的时期,各区域之间的金融风险关系错综复杂,任何区域都是其他区域金融风险的Granger原因,此时金融风险在各区域间存在显著的交叉传染效应。

Against the background of international crisis and by the using of banks return on the capital market, this paper checks contagion effect of the regional financial risks by Granger causal analysis and impulse response function. The results shows contagion effect exists during regions in China. And it also shows that regional financial risk is not always in two ways. In the time of risk concentration, the financial risk during different regions is more complicated. Any region is the Granger reason of other region risks. And at this time, financial risks are signifi- cantly crossover among all regions.