中国收入水平影响出口增长的分区比较研究--跨越“中等收入陷阱”贸易策略研判

Regional Comparative Study on the Influence of Income Level on Export Growth:Trade Strategies for Escaping “Middle Income Trap”

分区计算对比其他国家的出口相对绩效指数表明,2003年后,中国不同区域指数值走向差异明显,低收入区绩效指数振荡攀升至历史高位。在基于收入水平的要素成本率指标和出口相对业绩、出口发展指数指标之间建立回归方程,其计量参数表明,只有高收入区省份从2007年始,上年收入水平才对当年出口增长发生具统计显著性负弹性影响。预计未来中国出口增速会下降,但并不会发生增长逆转。高收入区出口转型升级、中低收入区充分发挥成本优势、加强高中低收入区经济联系,有助于强化中国货物出口增长可持续性,并跨越"中等收入陷阱"。

There are apparent differences in export relative performance index （ERPI） trends between the income-groups of Chinese provinces after 2003. The econometric parameters of the regressive equations between Factor-Cost-Rate （FCR） and Chinese provinces＇ export development index （CPEDI） based on the provinces＇ panel data illustrate that only in the high-income-groups from 2007, the last year＇s income level has a minus-elasticity influence on the export growth with statistical significance. The paper suggests that to promote the export structure transformation of high-income groups, to adequately take the cost-advantage of.middle- and low-income groups, and to consolidate the interrelationship among all income groups, will strengthen the sustainability of Chinese merchandise export growth and will contribute to escaping ＇ middle-income-trap＇.