广州市儿童医疗资源需求预测

Prediction of pediatric service resource demand in Guangzhou

目的分析和预测广州市儿童医疗资源需求，为科学制订广州市儿童医疗配置规划提供理论依据。方法运用时间序列分析方法建模，并预测广州市2013至2020年活产数。用2010年广州市0～14岁儿童数占2010年及之前14年活产数累加值的比例，分别乘以2001至2015年和2006至2020年累计预测活产数，预测2015和2020年广州市常住0～14岁儿重数。再根据标准资源配置预测广州市2015和2020年儿童医疗服务资源的需求。结果预计广州市儿科开放床位，2015年达到9060张，需新增床位5476张；2020年达到14550张，需新增床位10966张方能满足需求。相应的，2015年至少需增加儿科专科医生966人，儿科专科护士2338人；至2020年至少需拥有儿科专科医生2598，儿科专科护士5197人。结论广州市未来几年的儿童医疗服务资源需求将成倍增加。因此应发展有层次的儿童医疗服务体系。从规划上加强妇幼卫生资源整合，引导和推动不同服务需求的人群，向提供不同层次服务的机构分流，并合理考虑儿科专科医院的建设和布点。

Objective To analyze and predict the demand of pediatric service resources in Guangzhou and to provide information for scientifically allocating pediatric service resources. Methods Time series model was used to predict the number of live birth in Guangzhou from 2013 to 2020. The numbers of resident children aged 0-14 years in 2015 and 2020 were estimated by calculating the product of proportion of resident children aged 0-14 years in 2010 among the accumulated number of live birth from 1996 to 2010 and the accumulated predicted number of live birth from 2001 to 2015 and 2006 to 2020, respectively. Based on the predicted number of resident children aged 0-14 years in 2015 and 2020 and standard resources allocation, the pediatric service resources demand in Guangzhou in 2015 and 2020 were predicted. Results The numbers of pediatric bed in Guangzhou in 2015 and 2020 should reach 9 060 and 14 550, respectively, which were 5 476 and 10 966 more than that in 2010, respectively. The addition of pediatric physicians and nurses was at least 966 and 2 338 in 2015, respectively. The need of pediatric doctors and nurse was at least 2 598 and 5 197 in 2020, respectively. Conclusion The pediatric service resources demand will increase exponentially in Guangzhou in next few years. It is necessary to develop pediatric health care system hierarchically, including integrating maternal and child health source, leading the population to find the services at muhi-tiered pediatric health care system, and reasonably considering the construction and distribution of pediatric specialist hospital.