基于系统动力学的东北国有林区低碳政策模拟研究

Simulation Study of Northeast State-Owned Forest Low Carbon Policy Based on System Dynamics

结合东北国有林区的实际情况及特色资源,在分析低碳经济复杂系统结构及动态反馈关系的基础上,建立东北国有林区低碳经济系统动力学模型。通过调整三次产业比例、提高森林碳汇、增加非化石能源比例、提高能源利用率、提高人口素质五次政策模拟,根据仿真模拟结果得出结论:东北国有林区发展低碳经济应加快产业结构调整,大力发展第三产业;提高森林蓄积量和森林质量,增强森林碳汇功能;优化能源结构,增加非石化能源比例;大力发展科技,提高能源利用率;加大教育投入,提高人口素质。

Based on the analysis of the relations between the complex low - carbon economy system and dynamic feedback, taking the specific situation and the characteristic resources of state - owned forest in Northeast into account, the low - carbon economy system dynamics modding of state - owned forest in Northeast is established and simulation is carried out. By adjusting the structure of the three industries, improving the stocking volume growth, increasing the proportion of non - fossil energy, im- proving energy utilization and improving the quality of the population to implement the simulation of policy. According to the simulation results concluded ： Northeast state - owned forest region develop low - carbon economy need to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, develop the tertiary industry ; improve the amount of forest and forest quality, increase forest carbon sink function; increase sci- ence and technology investment, improve energy utilization; increase input in education, improve the quality of the population.