半干旱草原区沙尘暴灾害承灾体脆弱性动态变化分析

Analysis on Dynamics of Vulnerability of Hazard-bearing Bodies of the Sandstorm Disaster in the Semi-arid Grassland Areas

以模糊数学为理论基础,通过构建沙尘暴灾害承灾体脆弱性评价模型,研究了半干旱草原区——锡林郭勒盟沙尘暴灾害承灾体的脆弱性。结果表明:三个时期(1981—1990年、1991—2000年、2001—2010年)锡林郭勒盟地区沙尘暴灾害承灾体的脆弱性表现出逐渐降低的趋势。大风日数减少、植被盖度增加,人口增长速度减缓、牲畜存栏头数和超载率得到一定控制,减轻了承灾体对环境的压力;牧民纯收入的增加、医疗卫生条件的改善、交通设施的增加,增强了承灾体抵御灾害的能力以及灾后恢复力;产业结构逐渐合理化、多元化,有利于经济稳定,对沙尘暴承灾体的脆弱性降低起到积极作用。评价结果表明,模糊数学方法对草原区沙尘暴承灾体脆弱性评价的可行性,评价结果可以为后续的防灾减灾工作提供依据。

Based on the theory of fuzzy mathematics, this article did a research on the vulnerability of hazard- affected bodies of sandstorm disaster in semi-arid grassland area （Xilin Gol League）, by means of construc- ting the evaluation model of vulnerability of sandstorm disaster, and classing the evaluation results. The re- sults showed that the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies showed gradually reduced tendency during three periods （1981--1990, 1991--2000, 2001--2010） in Xilin Gol League area region. Strong wind days reduce and vegetation coverage increases, the rate of population increase slowed down, and the total number of live- stock and overloading rate obtained a certain control, which reduced the bearing pressure disaster to the envi- ronment, and enhanced the ability of people and livestock to resist the disaster at the same time. The ability of resisting the disaster and recovery of hazard-affected body were enhanced by the increase of net income of herdsmen, the improvement of medical and health conditions and the increase of traffic facilities. Industrial structure dominated by husbandry has transformed into rational and multivariant one, which is beneficial to economic stability, and enhances the ability of resisting the disaster, and plays a positive role in reducing the vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies. Evaluation results show that the fuzzy mathematics method on steppe sandstorm vulnerability assessment is feasible, but, as a follow-up evaluation results can provide the basis for disaster prevention and mitigation.