基于复杂适应系统理论的农业水资源优化配置——以三江平原为例

Optimal Allocation of Agricultural Water Resources Based on the Complex Adaptive System Theory——A Case Study of the Sanjiang Plain

以对现有可利用的农业水资源进行优化配置为目的,从复杂适应系统理论的视角,研究其在农业水资源优化配置中的适用性,构建多层次的农业水资源配置复杂适应系统模型,并通过对模型的求解预测三江平原灌区2020年的供需水情况,给予分析,结果表明,三江平原地区应该加强对地表水尤其是地表径流的合理开发利用,从而缓解地下水开采过度问题。研究表明,复杂适应系统理论应用在农业水资源优化配置中是可行的。

Based on the existing agricultural resources available to optimize the allocation for the purpose, and from the view of the complex adaptive system theory, this article is to study the applicability of agricultural water resources optimization allocation of agricultural water resources allocation, and construct the multi-lev- el complex adaptive system model. Water demand and supply situation in 2020 irrigation area of Sanjiang plain was analyzed based on the model simulation. The results show that the plain area of Sanjiang should strengthen the surface water especially in the rational development and utilization of surface runoff, so as to resolve the problem of excessive exploitation of groundwater. The research shows that the complex adaptive system theory in agricultural water resources optimization allocation is feasible.