对外贸易对我国碳排放的影响分析

Analyse the Influences of Foreign Trade on China's Carbon Emission

能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础,是促进经济增长最基本的要素之一。随着世界经济的迅速发展,气候变化对人类活动的影响越来越深,也更加受到国际社会的重视。中国正处于工业化和城市化快速发展的过程,经济增长与资源供给和环境保护的矛盾日益尖锐,特别是加入世贸组织以来,经济高速发展,对外贸易不断扩大,随之而来的环境问题越来越受到人们的关注。本文应用聚类分析的方法,得出对外贸易与碳排放量之间关系以加入世贸组织为标志分为两类,并应用回归分析对比入世前后对外贸易对我国碳排放量的影响变化,结果表明:入世后,国内碳排放量与对外贸易的弹性值变大,说明我国对外贸易的增长伴随着较高的能耗水平,政府在协调环境保护与经济发展的关系上仍需努力。

The survival and development of human society depend on the energy. Energy is an important material basis, and it is one of the most basic elements to promote economic growth. With the rapid development of world economy, the impact of cli- mate change on human activity is more and more deep, and the international communities pay more attention to it. China is in the fast development process of industrialization and urbanization, economic growth and resource supply and environment protection has become an increasingly sharp contradictions, especially since China joined the WTO, its economic is developing fast, export trade is continuously expanding, and more and more people concern about the environmental problems. This paper applied the method of clustering analysis, shows that the influence＇s between China＇s carbon emissions and export trade is divided into two categories marked with the accession to the world trade organization. And by the way of regression analysis, compared the influ- ence＇s change between China＇s carbon emissions and export trade before and after China＇s entry into the WTO. The results show that： after China＇s entry into the WTO, the elastic value between domestic carbon emissions and export trade has been larger. That means China＇s export trade growth is accompanied by high energy consumption level, our government need to do more to harmo- nize the relationship between environment and development.