居民消费影响因素区域差异分析——以江苏省为例

Empirical Analysis on Regional Differences of Influential Factors of Residents' Consumption——Taking the Jiangsu Province for Example

文章首先通过采用1991-2010年间的数据,用回归分析法研究了江苏省城乡人均居民收入、商业规模、政府支出和常住人口对消费的影响,结果表明:对江苏省居民消费长期发展有显著影响的是城镇居民收入和常住人口,且常住人口总量对消费影响程度已经明显大于居民收入对消费的影响。为了全面了解江苏省区域性消费影响因素的差异,采用上述所有影响因素2004-2010年的面板数据通过聚类分析法将江苏省十三个市分为三类,并运用面板数据模型对三类城市分别进行回归分析,得到的对三类城市消费的影响因素各不相同。因此,政府在制定促进消费的各项政策时,要因时因地有针对性的进行。

Firstly,the data of the influence factors such as urban and rural residents＇ income,government expenditure,commercial scale,permanent population in Jiangsu Province,1991-2010 is analyzed with regression analysis.This part comes to conclusions that urban per capita disposable income and permanent population have significant effect on the long-term development of Jiangsu consumption.And the total amount of the permanent population has Influence on consumption levels have significantly greater than the influence of urban per capita disposable income on consumption.Secondly,in order to fully understand the difference of the influence factors among cities in Jiangsu Province,the article uses the clustering analysis to thirteen cities.Then divides these cities into three categories,and introduces 2004-2010 panel data to analyze the three kinds of urban consumption.Then this part comes to conclusions that in the short term influencing factors of the three categories cities consumption are not in the same.Therefore,the government should have the targeted when formulating policies to stimulate consumption.