经济驱动结构的时空过程及其耦合特征分析——基于省际面板数据的实证

An Analysis on the Economic Driving Structure of the Time-Space Process and Its Coupling Characteristics: Based on the Empirical of Provincial Panel Data

在优选、创新计量方法并建立省际面板矩阵的基础上,发挥面板模型兼具截面和时序分析的优长,利用EViews和ArcGIS软件,探讨影响经济增长的投入要素及其时空演变过程与耦合规律,给出驱动结构的中国经验模式。结果显示:(1)总体上,研究结论符合发展经济学关于经济动力系统由资本、劳动力及人力资本等组分构成的基本假说,投资占绝对主导地位(贡献率为82.5%),而人力资本弹性最大(0.772),预示了发展的前景方向;(2)时序上,经济驱动结构因受真实时间影响而呈现出阶段性特征,3个解释变量表现出4种组合形式及有序过程,印证了经济驱动力必将向资本、人力资本演进的一般规律;(3)在空间维度上,经济驱动类型涵盖了3大类7亚类,集聚为由9个板块构成的经济地图,突破了关于中国传统经济地带(类型)假说的认知,勾绘出地域主体功能深入演进及分异的新格局;(4)经济驱动结构不是简单的时空耦合,而是在契合一般时序规律的同时,在空间上表现出复杂性及自适应性。

On the basis of choosing and innovating mathematical model, the paper uses EViews and ArcGIS to study economic growth factors as well as regional combination and time process along with the coupling rule by ad- vantages of panel data analysis method in undertaking section analysis and time series analysis and with establishing of the provincial panel matrix of China. The research conclusion puts forward the driving structure of Chinese em- pirical mode ： （ 1 ） overall, it accords with a basic hypothesis of development economics about economic power system consists of capital, labor and human capital and some other compositions, to support the sustained and rapid devel- opment in China over the past 20 years~ Among them the contribution of investment accounted for 82.5% ,occu- pied a dominant position, and the elasticity of the human capital is 0. 772, the biggest than any other, indicating the development direction of the futureo （2） on time series, it is featured by phases in the economic driver structure of China, and show four combination forms and stage of development as a result of interactions with material capital, labor and human capital in the process of real time, confirmed to be the general rule that the economic driving force would evolve to the capital, human capital~ （3）in spatial dimensions, the economic drivers in China play some re- gional characteristic, owing to association with the objective reality especially each province＇ s development model and other provinces around, roughly divided into three economic driving categories and seven classes, thus forms an economic map of China by 9 economic plates. This conclusion breaks through the traditional cognitive about China＇ s economic zone （or type） hypothesis~ （4）Through the stack of space and time characteristics of the economic drive structure,it can be seen that the economic drive structure is far from a simple space-time couple process just as some views of previous researcho On the contrary,it agrees with the general rules of time series, and displaying the complexity and adaptability in regional section.