基于空间回归分析的城市土地综合承载力研究——以环渤海地区城市群为例

The Research of Urban Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Based on Spatial Regression Analysis: Taking the Bohai Rim Urban Agglomeration as Example

归纳出了影响城市土地综合承载力的3个主要因素;并对普通最小二乘法(OLS)模型和地理加权回归(GWR)模型进行了分析;进而对环渤海地区城市群土地综合承载力进行了实证研究。结果表明:①环渤海地区城市群土地人口承载力的增强,土地资源、环境承载力的优化,土地经济、社会承载力的拉动,能够提升城市土地综合承载力水平。②人口因素、资源环境因素对土地综合承载力影响的平均空间回归系数均从山东半岛城市群开始沿顺时针方向递增,经济社会因素对土地综合承载力影响的平均空间回归系数则从京津冀城市群开始沿逆时针方向递减。③这3个主要因素对土地综合承载力的影响敏感程度都存在较为明显的"高低区域地带"。

This paper summarizes 3 main factors of influencing urban land comprehensive carrying capacity, analyzes ordinary least squares （OLS） model and geographically weighted regression （GWR） model, and then car- ries out the empirical research for urban land comprehensive carrying capacity of the Bohai Rim urban agglomera- tion. The enhancement of land population carrying capacity, the optimization of land resource and environment car- rying capacity, and the boost of land economic and social carrying capacity in the Bohai Rim urban agglomeration are able to enhance the level of urban land comprehensive carrying capacity. Average spatial regression coefficients that population factors, resource and environment factors affect urban land comprehensive carrying capacity respec- tively increase progressively clockwise from the beginning of Shandong peninsula urban agglomeration, but average spatial regression coefficients which economic and social factors affect urban land comprehensive carrying capacity reduce gradually anticlockwise from the beginning of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. There are ＂high and low regional zone＂more obvious in sensitivity degrees which these 3 main factors influence urban land compre- hensive carrying capacity respectively.