网络公共危机诱因、演化机理及预警机制研究

Incentive,Evolution Mechanism and early Warning Mechanism of Network Public Crisis

随着网络的普及和应用,公民民主参与意识的增强,网络媒体在政治社会中的影响愈加广泛,随之而来的网络公共危机也越来越多。网络公共危机的匿名性较高、煽动性较强,爆发迅速、更新速度快、跟风现象严重,参与者数量众多、影响广泛。网络公共危机的演化一般要经过三个阶段,即潜伏与孕育阶段、发展扩散阶段和演变与终结阶段。在这三个阶段中,每个阶段表现出来的特征都不一样。健全和完善网络公共危机的预警机制要从四个方面入手:监控并寻找警源、识别警兆、分析警情和预报警度。

With the network popularization and application, and citizens consciousness in democratic participation enhance- ment, the network media＇influences are becoming more extensive in political society, subsequently, network public crises are increas- ing rapidly. Network public crises are highly anonymous and strongly provocative; they break out rapidly, update fast and are easy to cause serious follow - suit phenomenon, and the participants are numerous which may bring about wide influence. The evolution of the network public crisis generally goes through three stages, namely, latent and embryonic stage, the development of diffusion phase and evolution and the end stage. The three stages have different features. The early warning mechanism of sound and perfect network pub- lic crisis needs to be built from four aspects： monitoring and looking for the alert source, identify warning signs, forecasting warning degrees and alert analysis.