基于信息扩散理论的雷电天气关注度研究

On Attention Degree of Lightning Weather Based on Information Diffusion Theory

利用重庆市北碚地区2009-2011年的12121气象信息电话拨打次数与闪电定位系统监测数据,应用基于信息扩散理论的风险评估方法,重点分析社会公众对雷电天气的关注度.结果表明:社会公众对雷电天气的关注度随关注度风险水平的增加而逐渐增加,雷电天气关注度随着季节变化各异,从高到低依次为春季、夏季、秋季、冬季;基于闪电定位数据计算的关注度理论值较为准确地反映实际情况,且通过显著性检验;基于此,将社会公众对雷电天气事件的关注度风险等级划分为一般风险水平、中风险水平、高风险水平,为雷电灾害防御管理提供决策理论依据.

Based on Information Diffusion Theory and the related methods, and by means of the dialing numbers of weather service phone （named 12121） and data of Lightning Location System （LLS） from 2009 to 2011 in Beibei of Chongqing, the lightning weather attention degree of general public has been selective ly analyzed in this paper. The results suggest that Lightning weather attention degree of general public in creases as the attention degree risk grade （dialing numbers of phone） increases. The attention degree is different in each season. Spring is the highest and after that are summer and autumn, winter is the lowest. The correlation of the attention degree of theoretical calculation based on the data of LLS and the statistic of initial data is well by correlation test. So the theoretical value could reflect the fact. Therefore, we di vide the risk grade into three parts, namely, low risk grade, middle risk grade, and high risk grade. It provides a decision theoretical basis for lightning disaster protection and management.