黑龙江省2012年后由暖干转暖湿型气候变化及预测分析

Climate change from warm dry to warm wet after 2012 and the climate forecast in Heilongjiang Province

使用1909～2011年气温、降水实测资料和动力气候模式输出产品,采用趋势分析、阶段分析、周期分析、数值模拟等方法,对气温、降水进行年际、年代际变化、趋势预报及气候转型等预测。结果表明:在过去的103a中年气温上升2℃,尤其是1988年以来气温大幅上升,1988～2011年的24a平均气温达3℃,较历年平均提高了1℃。未来气温继续升高,但较1999～2011年段平均气温将有所下降。降水趋势无大变化,在103a仅减少了15mm,平均减少1.5mm/10a。1954～2011年降水周期分析表明1954～1966年为多水,1967～1982年为少水,1983～1998年为多水,1999～2011年为少水。从近百年降水年代际变化规律来看,基本有20a一升10a一降,或20a一降10a一升的规律,2012年后将转多水。转多水开始时间指标是从降水开始的第一年至第三年平均降水量>多年平均降水量10%～20%或以上,也表明2012年开始转多水。综合气温、降水气候类型变化特征,可划分为7个时段气候型,上世纪80年代气候变暖后只有暖湿、暖干的变化。类型的转换有14a的周期,2012年后14～16a转为暖湿时期。

Using temperature, precipitation data from 1909 to 2011 and dynamical climate moael output products, by using trend analysis, phase analysis, periodic analysis, numerical simulation methods; climate change of annual temperature, precipitation, interannual variation, trend forecasting and climate change prediction. The results showed that： temperature rise of 2 ℃, in 103 a, especially since the 1988 temperature rise sharply, in 1988--2011 24 a, average temperature up to 3 ℃, annual average increase is 1℃. Temperatures continue to rise in future, but 1999~2011 average temperature will drop. The trend of precipitation has no change, only in 103 a reduced by 15 mm, an average reduction of 1.5 mm/10 a. In 1954~2011 precipitation cycle analysis showed that 1954~1966 for more water, less water is 1967~1982,1983~1998 for more water, 1999~2011 for less water. From the point of view of nearly a hundred years of precipitation interdecadal variation characteristics, basic 20 a rise , 10 a down, or 20 a down 10 a rise , 2012 will turn the rainy. Turn water start time index is from precipitation began the first year to the third year average precipitation, 10~20~ precipitation or above, also indicates that 2012 began to turn more water for good. Comprehensive climate variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature, was divided into 7 climate type, changed in the last century 80 ＇ s after climate warming only warm and dry. From the type of transformation has a cycle of 14 a, the future of 2012 after 14~16 a to warm and wet period.