中央银行预期管理的前提、方法和效果:国际比较和中国实证研究

The Premise,Method and Effects of the Expectation Management of the Central Bank: International Comparison and Empirical Study in China

中央银行预期管理需要一定的条件,如能力、信任度、透明度和制度保证。虽然各国中央银行预期管理千差万别,但是都重视对经济增长和通货膨胀预期的管理,区间也多以1年以上的长期管理为主。本文研究发现,我国中央银行对经济增长和通货膨胀预测都优于国际货币基金组织,但是城镇居民物价预期指数信息含量较北大朗润预测稍差。因此,本文建议中国人民银行恢复对我国和世界宏观经济主要指标数值预测的公布,进一步提高改进宏观预测能力,提高其预测对商业机构预测的影响。

The central bank needs a lot of requirements for expectation management,such as ability,credibility,transparency and institution. Almost all central banks paid much attention to expectation management towards inflation and economic growth and chose the horizon for above a year. The empirical study shows that the People's Bank of China is in a dominant position for the expectation for inflation and economic growth than those of IMF. But the index of future price expectation of urban residents had less information than CMRC's lang-run expectation. So,the paper suggests that the People's Bank of China should renew the publication of expectation of inflation and economic growth in report of monetary policy and enhanced the ability of expectation and enlarged its influence on Commercial institutions prediction.