密度效应、最优城市人口密度与集约型城镇化

Density Effect, Urban Optimum Density and Intensive Urbanization

本文从中国城镇化过程中城市粗放扩张的现实问题出发,针对城市经济活动集聚的密度效应研究的不足,利用中国地级及以上城市2006—2010年面板数据考察了中国城市密度效应及最优城市人口密度,藉此分析了未来中国走集约型城镇化道路的问题。研究结果发现:在样本范围内,密度效应表现出显著的倒U型特征;在控制规模效应和结构效应之后,密度效应的倒U型特征依然显著;以城区总人口比建成区面积核算的最优城市人口密度约为1.30万人/平方公里。基于最优城市人口密度的观点,土地城镇化和人口城镇化应当在最优城市人口密度标准下协调推进,由此进一步分析了走集约型城镇化道路的节地潜力,明确了集约型城镇化的必要性与可行性,并指出可以从加强土地挖潜、提高城镇人口吸纳能力、建设紧凑型城镇三个方面出发推进集约型城镇化。

From the practical problem of extensive expansion of urban spatial in China＇s urbanization and the shortcomings of the researches in urban density effect, this paper test the density effect and studied the optimum city population density of Chinese city by employing the panel data of China＇s prefecture-level city between 2006 and 2010, and then studied the issue of intensive urbanization. Through analysis found that in the sample range, respectively used dependent variables production per labor and wage, density effect showed an inverted U shaped significantly; And after control the size effect and specialization effect, the density effect is still inverted U shaped. Further study showed that the optimum density gauged by total urban population divided by urban buih-up area is about 13 thousand per square kilometers. Based on the viewpoint of urban optimum density, land urbanization and human urbanization should be promoted coordinately according to the optimum density, and then studied the potential urban land use capacity and clarified the necessity and feasibility of intensive urbanization. At last, we point out that China need to take the road of intensive urbanization in the future by excavating potential urban land use capacity, improving urban capacity of absorbing population and constructing compact cities.