承销商关系与机构持股压力对分析师盈利预测的影响

The Impact of the Underwriting Business Relationship and Institutional Ownership Pressure on Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts

本文通过2004-2011年亏损企业的分析师研报数据,研究了证券分析师对亏损企业乐观盈利预测背后的利益关联。分析师对亏损企业的盈利预测过度乐观是因为分析师自身能力不够吗?我们发现在控制了分析师个人因素不变的情况下,承销商关系、机构持股的压力是造成分析师对亏损企业乐观预测的重要原因,并发现投资者情绪也是一个重要原因,在投资者情绪高涨时盈利预测更加乐观。进一步的研究发现,深交所2006年实施的公平信息披露规则有效缓解了承销商关系和机构持股对分析师乐观偏差的影响。本文的研究有利于投资者更为科学的审视分析师的盈利预测,并为监管部门提供政策参考。

This paper analyzes benefit relevancy of analysts＇ optimistic forecast to loss-making enterprises using analysts＇ forecast data for China＇s loss-making companies from 2004 to 2011. We find that the underwriting business relation and the pressure of institutional ownership have significant impact on the optimistic forecasts of loss-making companies if we assume that analysts＇ personal factors are constant. We also find that investor sentiment is another important factor, and earnings forecasts are more optimistic when investor sentiment is mounting. Further research shows that FD can effectively alleviate the impact of the underwriting business relation and institutional ownership on analysts＇ optimistic forecasts. Therefore, this research facilitates investors＇ scientific inspection to analysts＇ earnings forecasts, and provides a reference to regulatory authorities.