社会保障支出对城镇居民消费支出的影响

Influences of social security expenditure on urban residents' expenditure

分别从全国和区域两个层面对我国财政社保支出与城镇居民消费的关系进行了实证分析。构建了状态空间模型,选取1978-2011年间的时间序列数据,分析财政社保支出对我国城镇居民消费的总体影响,并选取1987-2011年间的省际面板数据,用动态面板模型分析了社保支出对城镇居民消费的区域效应。研究表明,样本区间内,我国社会保障制度处于不断完善的过程中;总体上看,社会保障支出对城镇居民消费起到了挤入作用,但对消费的拉动效应则存在着明显的区域性差异。

This essay conducts empirical analysis to ur- ban inhabitant consumption effects of expenditure for social secu- rity, by constructing two dynamic models using the time series of national data from 1978 to 2011 and the provincial panel data from 1987 to 2011. The results show that the expenditure for so- cial security has improved the urban inhabitant consumption in the long run, but the effects of promoting consumption are differ- ent in different parts of China.