摘要
在工程项目的实施过程中,由于建筑工程项目投资大、工期长、施工难度大、技术复杂等特点,使得工程项目本身存在着许多不确定性因素决定了建筑工程项目的多风险性。对Dempster合成法则进行了改进,给出了基于改进D-S证据理论的工程项目风险评估模型,克服了传统评估方法在处理不确定性和证据冲突问题方面的不足。并结合算例证明了此方法在预测建筑企业工程项目系统风险过程中的实际应用价值。
Because of the large construction investment,long construction period and complex technology in construction, the construction project has encountered many uncertainty factors and various risks in the engineering project implementation process. This article applies the improved D-S evidence theory in the construction project risk appraisal process, has overcome the qualitative analysis limitation and other risk measuring technique can only survey the sole risk degree. Examples show that the method is scientific and effective, for the engineering project risk control and management provides an important reference and gives the example to prove practical application value with this method regarding the risk control and management.
出处
《建筑技术开发》
2013年第10期69-72,共4页
Building Technology Development
