江苏省能源消费趋势预测及其碳排放研究

Jianshu province energy consumption trend prediction and carbon emission research

能源是江苏未来经济健康发展的物质基础,科学预测江苏未来的能源消费对于能源资源严重缺乏的江苏而言具有举足轻重的意义。文章借助趋势外推模型和ARMA模型相结合,对江苏2014~2023年的能源消费进行了预测,结果表明江苏省2020年能源消费量大约为4.5亿吨标煤;利用马尔科夫预测模型对江苏未来能源消费结构进行了预测,并在此基础上预测了江苏2014~2023年的碳排放量,结果表明,未来江苏的碳排放量呈明显上升趋势,至2020年左右,其碳排放量约为3.7亿吨,这意味着江苏将面临严峻的减排形势。因此江苏未来必须大力调整能源消费结构,使能源结构朝着清洁化、优质化方向发展,为江苏社会经济的健康发展奠定基础。

Energy is the material basis for the fu- ture healthy development of the economy in Jiangsu, so it is very important for Jiangsu to scientifically forecast its future energy consumption, which is ~ack of energy resource. This article forecasts the energy consumption of Jiangsu in 2014-2023 by the combination of trend extrapolation model and ARMA model, the re- sults show that the energy consumption in 2020 in jiangsu province ~s about 450 million tons of tce; then the paper forecasts the future energy consumption structure in jiangsu province by the markov prediction model, predicting its the carbon emissions in 2014- 2023 on the basis of above the forecast ,the results shows that there is clearly ascendant trend in the fu- ture carbon emissions and its carbon emissions will rise to about 370 million tons in 2020, which means Jiangsu will face the severe situation of emissions re- duction. So it is necessary for Jiangsu to vigorously adjust its future structure energy consumption in or- der to make it develop towards clean and varieties and lay the foundation for the healthy development of so- cial economy in Jiangsu province.