中国碳排放强度变动趋势分析及预测

China carbon emission strength change trend analysis and prediction

以二氧化碳为主的温室气体导致全球气候变暖已为世界所公认,而中国的碳排放已经成为国内外研究与讨论的热点问题之一。2009年哥本哈根气候变化会议上,中国向世界做出承诺：到2020年中国二氧化碳排放强度比2005年下降40%~45%。本文基于1990~2009年中国碳排放强度的历史数据,分析其变动情况并预测2020年是否能完成减排40%~45%的承诺。最后提出了为实现减排任务的承诺提出政策性建议。

Mainly carbon dioxide greenhouse gases that cause global warming has been recognized all over the world, while China＇s carbon emissions has become one of the hot issues of domestic and foreign research and discussion.Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in 2009, China made a commitment to the world： China＇s carbon emissions by 2020 compared to 2005 decreased in- tensity of 40-45%.Based on the carbon intensity of our historical data from 1990 to 2009, to analyze the changes, and predict whether the 2020 completion of 40% -45% emission intensity reduction commitments. Make policy recommendations commitment to achieve the emis- sion reduction mandate.