基于“弓弦箭”模型的公共安全风险测度组合评价

Integrated Evaluation of Public Security Risk Measurement Based on "Bow-string-arrow" Model

为科学评估我国各地区公共安全风险,基于"弓弦箭"模型,构建包括能力和脆弱性指标的公共安全发展水平评价指标体系。采用因子分析、主成分分析(PCA)、灰色关联度分析、熵值法和加权TOPSIS法构成的组合评价法,综合评价我国31个省、自治区、直辖市的公共安全发展水平。对各评价方法运用KENDALL-W协和系数法,通过事前一致性检验后,使用算术平均法、Borda法和Copeland法,对上述结果进行组合评价。采用Spearman等级相关系数,衡量各组合评价结果与原始评价结果之间的吻合性,根据Spearman等级相关系数的大小选取最优的评价结果。结果表明:我国各地区的公共安全发展状况存在显著差异,基本呈现出东部地区强,中部地区弱,西部地区更弱的阶梯状递减趋势。在未来的发展中,需加大宣传及投资力度,引导中西部地区逐步构建完整的公共安全管理机制,提高其公共安全水平。

To evaluate regional public security scientifically,an evaluation index system,including indexes of abilities and vulnerability,for public security development level was established based on the ＂Bow-String-Arrow＂ model.An integrated evaluation method consisted of factor analysis,PCA,gray evaluation,entropy evaluation and weighted TOPSIS was worked out to evaluate the public security development levels of 31 provinces and cities in China.Firstly,Kendall-W Concorde coefficient method was used to verify the consistency of different evaluation methods.Then arithmetic mean method,Borda method and Copeland method were used to get the combination evaluation results.Subsequently,Spearman correlation was chosen to test the availability of results.Based on the Spearman correlation coefficient,the optimal evaluation results were selected.The results show that there are big differences in public security development condition between these regions.It presents a ladder pattern trend that the eastern region is high,the central region is lower than the eastern region and the western region is the lowest.In the period of future development,some solutions such as increasing propaganda and investment level should be made to guide the central and western regions towards establishing integrated public security management organization and improving the public security level.