基于脆弱性的地铁运营安全事故致因分析

Causation Analysis of Accidents in Subway Operation Based on Vulnerability

为揭示地铁运营安全事故的深层机理,基于脆弱性理论和耗散结构理论,采用系统分析的方法,构建地铁系统的脆弱链模型。从脆弱性的角度分析地铁运营事故的演化机理和致因要素的影响机理,提出着眼于脆弱性的地铁运营安全事故致因理论。结果表明:地铁系统具有脆弱性,系统及其事故演化过程具有耗散结构特性;事故是干扰、暴露和地铁系统脆弱性综合作用的结果。干扰和暴露是事故发生的先决条件,地铁系统脆弱性能够影响事故发生的可能性和后果的严重程度。

In order to explore the mechanism of accidents in subway operation, a vulnerability chain model is built. The evolution mechanism of accidents and the effects of causation factors are analyzed based on vulnerability and dissipative structure theory, from the perspective of vulnerability by using system analysis. A causation theory of accidents in subway operation based on vulnerability is developed. The results show that （i） a subway system has its vulnerability, （ii） a subway system and the evolution processes of its accidents have characteristics of dissipative structure, （iii） a ccidents are results of the interaction of interference, exposure and vulnerability of a subway system, （iv） interference and exposure are the preconditions of accidents occurring, and （v） vulnerability of a subway system affects the likeli- hood and severity of accidents.