我国货币政策传导分析

An Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of China's Monetary Policies

近年来,我国频繁采用不同货币政策进行宏观调控,然而其调控效果却饱受质疑。本文基于JJ协整、向量自回归的格兰杰(Granger)因果检验等方法对2003年至2012年的十年间我国的广义货币供给量、信贷规模以及国内生产总值进行了实证分析,得出了在此期间货币政策传导的货币供给渠道失效的结论,并就其原因进行了分析,进而提出一点政策建议。

In recent years,China has frequently implemented different macro-monetary policies,but their efficiency has received much criticism. Based on JJ cointegration,VAR Granger causality test and other methods,the paper gives an empirical analysis of China's broad measure of money supply,the credit scale and GDP from 2003 to 2012,and concludes that the transmission mechanism of these monetary policies is a failure. It also analyzes the possible causes before putting forward some related suggestions.