近十年全球石油行业上游勘探投资及勘探新增储量分析

Comparison over the last decade between the global oil industry's upstream exploration investment and incremental reserves

2002-2012年,全球上游名义勘探投资以年均15.6%的增幅快速增长,但剔除通胀影响后,实际勘探投资的年均增幅仅为6.9%,通胀导致名义勘探投资虚高。全球勘探新增储量近十年年均增幅为5.4%,略低于实际勘探投资年均增长幅度,而且勘探新增油气储量快速增长期明显滞后于实际勘探投资快速增长期5 6年。过去十年,全球油气名义储量发现成本虽然以年均9.7%的增幅快速增长,但剔除通胀后,实际储量发现成本仅年均增长1.5%。新的勘探技术的应用提高了钻探成功率,增加了全球油气发现的数量和储量总量,导致储量实际发现成本增长低于预期。建议:1)石油企业在制定上游勘探投资计划时,应剔除通胀影响,以实际勘探投资增幅为参考;2)克服急于求成的心理,尊重勘探规律,把投资目标放长远,保证稳定、持续增长的实际勘探投入;3)重视勘探新技术的开发和利用,形成自有核心技术。

From 2002 to 2012, global nominal exploration investment seemed to rapidly increase by 15.6% per year.However, real exploration investment grew as slowly as6.9% annually after taking inflation into account. Global incremental extension & discovery of reserves rose by 5.4%every year for the past ten years, and that is slightly below the increasing speed of actual exploration investment. Also the increasing pace of incremental extension & discovery of reserves lags actual exploration investment by 5 to 6years. Global nominal discovery cost has risen by 9.7%per year, but the real discovery cost has gone up by only1.5%, namely after inflation. The drilling success rate and global discoveries have all benefited from application of new exploration technology and also from real reduction in discovery cost. Recommendations: 1) Taking the increasing rate of real exploration investment as a reference and deflating when petroleum entrepreneurs make upstream exploration investment plans; 2) Respecting exploration rules, setting longer-term investment goals and managing stable and sustainable growth in real exploration investment instead of rushing for quick results; 3) Paying sufficient attention to new technology utilization in exploration, and in deciding our core technology.