基于集对分析模型的巢湖流域水资源系统脆弱性评价

Vulnerability Evaluation of Chaohu Basin Water Resources System Based on Set Pair Analysis Model

鉴于水资源系统脆弱性是一个复杂的系统工程,从水资源脆弱性、生态环境脆弱性和承载能力脆弱性三方面构建了流域水资源系统脆弱性指标体系,利用同异反层次法联系数建立了流域水资源系统脆弱性评价的集对分析模型,并对巢湖流域水资源系统脆弱性进行了综合评价。结果表明,巢湖流域水资源系统脆弱性为中度脆弱,各区域承载能力脆弱性均较高,但水资源脆弱性和生态环境脆弱性也不容忽视,应加强流域水资源综合治理,提高综合治理成效。

The water resources system vulnerability is a complex system engineering. Indicators system of basin wa- ter resources system vulnerability from three aspects of the water resources, ecological environment and carrying capacity is constructed by means of formation process analysis of basin water resources system vulnerability. Using connection number of identity discrepancy-contrary analysis method, set pair analysis model has been established for basin water re- sources system vulnerability evaluation. And then water resources system vulnerability of Chaohu basin is comprehensive ly evaluated. The results show that water resources system vulnerability of Chaohu basin belongs to the middle level, the vulnerability of carrying capacity is strong, but the vulnerability of water resources and ecological environment both are indispensable. So, it should strengthen the comprehensive management for basin water environment and increase the effect of comprehensive treatment.