要加强对短期跨境资本的管理

Strengthen Control of Short-term Cross-border Capital

近年来特别是2000年以来,美联储的政策有一个非常清楚的走势,与这种走势相对应的,是资本从美国和其他发达国家流向发展中国家以及这些资本从发展中国家流回美国与其他发达国家的周期。在这样的国际环境下,面对美国政策的变化,为捍卫自己的利益,发展中国家不能轻易放弃资本管制。这是因为,即使能够通过汇率自由浮动来解决问题,考虑到汇率作用的有限性以及汇率急剧上升或下降对发展中国家打击的严重性,也不应轻易放弃资本管制,放弃资本管制将给自己制造很多的麻烦。而如果有了资本管制,同时又采取比较灵活的汇率,就可以在两者之间找到一个比较好的平衡点。目前,考虑到我国金融体系的现状,特别是在当前全球金融周期处于一种导致发展中国家资金从发展中国家向美国等发达国家流动的时点上,加速资本项目自由化是不太妥当的,我们应加强对短期跨境资本流动的管理,不能轻易放开短期资本的流动。我们要把主要注意力放到加速金融体制改革、推动金融市场完善等方面,待这些问题解决之后,再彻底开放资本项目。

Abstract： In recent years, especially since the year 2000, there has been a clear trend of Fed policy; correspondently, there has been the cycles that capital first flowed from America and other developed countries to developing countries and then flowed back to American and other advanced countries. In this international background, facing changes in American policies, and to protect their own interests, developing countries should not easily give up capital control. Giving up capital control will bring developing countries more troubles. With the help of capital control and the flexible exchange rate, the developing countries could find a better equilibrium point. At present, with the consideration of the current situation of China＇s financial system, especially the current global financial cycle in which capital of developing countries is flowing from developing countries to America and other developed countries, accelerating capital liberalization is not appropriate; we should strengthen control of short-term cross-border capital. We should pay more attention to accelerating financial institutional reform, and promote the perfection of financial market. It is not late for us to implement Capital Account Liberalization after the solution of these problems.